Having a hard time following all the predictions, measures, indexes, projections, estimates and indicators? You’re not alone.
After a few months of relative prosperity and increasing confidence, there seems to be a revised outlook on the future health of the housing market. NAHB announced today that builder confidence for newly built, single-family homes slipped in October, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). On top of that, in a potential sign of things to come, foreclosure filings hit a record high in the third quarter.
National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)
On the other hand, remodelers we’re encouraged, at least momentarily, to find out that their industry is turning the corner, showing signs of stabilization. The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA), released last Thursday, suggests that annual spending levels should start to rise at the beginning of next year, as a result of a strengthening economy. Increased levels of spending will cause the year over year declines to shrink to 8.9 percent by the second quarter of 2010. However, as the director of the Remodeling Future Programs at the Joint Center for Housing Studies, Kermit Baker, pointed out, “several factors still impede remodeling growth,” the most important being the recovery of the housing market.
Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA)
Does the fate of the housing industry really rest in the hands of the home buyer tax credit extension? What’s going to happen if the proposal doesn’t pass? Guess we’ll find out soon. We’re bound to hear different perspectives Wednesday, during the NAHB’s Semi-Annual Construction Forecast Conference. Follow us on Twitter for updates. We’ll also be posting a complete recap of the highlights when the conference is over.
Tags: builder confidence, HMI, Housing Marketing Index, Joint Center for Housing Studies, Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, LIRA, National Association of Home Builders
Confidence?
Recovery?
There was a little blip of pent-up demand created by cash buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the best possible bargains… and there was the federal tax credit which created a handful (relatively) of new home sales…
But without a manufacturing-based JOBS recovery there wasn’t, isn’t, can’t be, and won’t be any kind of sustained housing/trades recovery. There can’t be.
What’s on the horizon to drive job growth? Nothing. We’ve sold our manufacturing capability offshore and to China.
There is one thing that could drive a substantial number of new jobs across all sectors (that doesn’t require a world war..) Residential energy retrofits. Old-school, nuts and bolts- according to some analysts this is an $840 billion market, much larger than anything the feds could do at this point. Check out this thread on our forum.
http://bit.ly/hRxuH
Joe Stoddard
Moderator and Contributing Editor
Business Technology/ The Journal of Light Construction